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NFL · Week 1 Preview

Mahomes is back, Darnold is hurt, and twelve games are priced inside a field goal.

The champs lost their quarterback on the first drive and won anyway. The reigning MVP got beaten by twenty in Melbourne. Now thirteen Sunday games, a Monday night that the whole league will watch, and a market that can't separate anybody. Your full NFL Week 1 preview.

Week 1The read

Where we stand before Sunday

Two favorites lost, two unders hit, and the rest of the week is a coin flip by design. Watch Mahomes' legs Monday, Murray's ceiling in Minnesota, and whether Drake Maye's three-pick night was a bad evening or the start of a conversation.

If you only read one box

Two games in and the 2026 NFL season has already cost the champions their quarterback, handed the Patriots a three-interception night from the guy they built everything around, and put 100,021 people in a cricket ground in Melbourne to watch Brock Purdy embarrass the reigning MVP. That was Wednesday and Thursday. Sunday has thirteen games, twelve of them priced inside a field goal, and Monday night has Patrick Mahomes walking back onto a field for the first time since his ACL went. If you were waiting for the season to start, it already did. Here is everything you need before kickoff.

What already happened

Seahawks 13, Patriots 10 (Wednesday)

The Super Bowl LX rematch went about as badly as it could for both teams and Seattle still won. Sam Darnold's hip gave out on the opening drive and he didn't come back. Drew Lock, who was supposed to spend the season holding a clipboard, threw for 187 yards and the go-ahead score to Jaxon Smith-Njigba. On the other side, Drake Maye threw 178 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions, the last three possessions of the game ending in his own picks and Josh Jobe sealing it. A.J. Brown, the offseason's marquee receiver acquisition, left with a high-ankle sprain. Seattle was 3.5-point favorites; New England covered, the total (44.5) went under.

Two things matter from this game going forward. Nobody knows yet how long Darnold is out, and Lock in relief looked like a starter, not a stopgap. And for a Patriots team whose whole offseason was about giving Maye a real No. 1, the No. 1 is now hurt and Maye's decision-making, not his arm, is the question.

49ers 27, Rams 7 (Thursday, Melbourne)

The first regular-season game in Australia drew the seventh-largest crowd in league history and the NFC West favorite got run out of the building. Kyren Williams scored the first NFL touchdown on Australian soil, a five-yard run to open the second quarter, and then the Rams didn't score again. Purdy threw for 205 and three touchdowns, one each to Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel and Demarcus Robinson, the last one a 39-yard post against his old team. Matthew Stafford, the reigning MVP, finished with 155 yards and an interception behind a line that couldn't hold. Myles Garrett's Rams debut was quiet. The Rams closed as 3.5-point favorites and got beaten by twenty.

The read on bothTwo favorites, two unders, two openers where the better-rested, less-hyped team won. If you're looking for a Week 1 theme before Sunday, it's that lines are pricing last season and the field is playing this one.

Sunday and Monday: the full slate, with lines

GameKick (ET)SpreadTotal
Falcons @ Steelers1:00 · FoxSteelers -5.541.5
Ravens @ Colts1:00 · CBSRavens -3.547.5
Bills @ Texans1:00 · CBSBills -1.544.5
Bears @ Panthers1:00 · FoxBears -3.547.5
Browns @ Jaguars1:00 · CBSJaguars -8.540.5
Saints @ Lions1:00 · FoxLions -6.549.5
Jets @ Titans1:00Titans -1.538.5
Buccaneers @ Bengals1:00 · FoxBengals -3.550.5
Cardinals @ Chargers4:25 · CBSChargers -9.547.5
Packers @ Vikings4:25 · CBSVikings -1.546.5
Dolphins @ Raiders4:25 · FoxRaiders -3.540.5
Commanders @ Eagles4:25 · FoxEagles -5.544.5
Cowboys @ Giants8:20 · NBCCowboys -2.548.5
Broncos @ Chiefs (Mon)8:15 · ESPNChiefs -2.543.5

Lines via bet365 as published by FOX Sports on Friday, Sept. 11. They move. Check your book before you bet.

The five games that decide how Week 1 is remembered

Bills at Texans (1:00, CBS) — Bills -1.5

Two of the league's four or five best quarterbacks, a total of 44.5, and a line that says the books can't separate them. Josh Allen has DJ Moore now, a legitimate No. 1 for the first time in years, and C.J. Stroud gets a Houston defense that's been top-five for two straight seasons. Buffalo is the pick in the market but barely. This is the best early game by a distance.

Packers at Vikings (4:25, CBS) — Vikings -1.5

Kyler Murray's first start in purple. Minnesota signed him to throw to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson, which is the best receiving room he has ever had by some margin. Green Bay comes in with Jordan Love in year four and a Josh Jacobs situation that's unresolved after his no-contest plea to two misdemeanors this week. Division game, dome, tight line. Expect points.

Commanders at Eagles (4:25, Fox) — Eagles -5.5

Jayden Daniels missed ten games last season. He's back, and the first thing on his schedule is Philadelphia's front seven on the road. Washington was 30th in touchdowns allowed to tight ends last year, which is why Dallas Goedert keeps showing up in prop columns. If Daniels looks like the 2024 version, this is a shootout; if he's rusty, the Eagles cover by halftime.

Cowboys at Giants (8:20, NBC) — Cowboys -2.5

John Harbaugh's first game as Giants head coach and Jaxson Dart's first as the unquestioned starter under him. Dallas is a road favorite in a division game against a rookie-contract quarterback with a new play-caller, which tells you what the market thinks of the Giants' roster. FOX's betting report says the books expect the heaviest public money of the week on Dallas. Fade or follow, that's the Sunday night question.

Broncos at Chiefs (Monday 8:15, ESPN) — Chiefs -2.5

Mahomes returns from the torn ACL that ended his 2025. Kansas City is only a 2.5-point home favorite against Bo Nix in his third year, which is the smallest Mahomes home line in memory and the clearest sign that the market wants to see him move before it trusts him. Denver's defense was elite last year. This is the game the whole league watches.

The other eight, quickly

Storylines that carry past Sunday

The new quarterbacks

Seven teams open with a different Week 1 starter than a year ago, and the range is wild. Murray in Minnesota is the one with the highest ceiling. Tagovailoa in Atlanta is the one with the most to prove. Geno Smith in New York and Kirk Cousins in Las Vegas are placeholders with pedigrees. Willis in Miami is a bet on upside. Watson in Cleveland is the one nobody outside the building wanted. And Rodgers in Pittsburgh is the one that shouldn't still be happening, but is.

The new coaches

Harbaugh to the Giants is the headline, and FOX's piece on his relationship with Dart is worth your time. Mike LaFleur, fresh off running the Rams' offense, takes over Arizona after Jonathan Gannon was fired. Todd Monken in Cleveland made his first big call at quarterback and it's the one he'll be judged on. In Los Angeles, Nate Scheelhaase is the new Rams offensive coordinator and after Thursday he already has questions.

The trades and signings, one game in

Garrett to the Rams: quiet debut in a blowout loss. Hendrickson to the Ravens: debuts Sunday. A.J. Brown to New England: hurt in the first half of game one. DJ Moore to Buffalo: debuts Sunday. Evans and Samuel to San Francisco: both scored in Melbourne. One week is one week, but the 49ers' offseason looks better than anyone's right now.

Injuries to watch before you set lineups

How to watch NFL Week 1

Sunday's early window is split between Fox and CBS with kickoffs at 1:00 p.m. ET; the late window is 4:25 on both networks. Cowboys–Giants is Sunday Night Football on NBC and Peacock at 8:20. Broncos–Chiefs is Monday Night Football on ESPN at 8:15. The Melbourne game was a Netflix exclusive, and the Wednesday opener was NBC and Peacock. If you're out of market, NFL Sunday Ticket on YouTube carries the Sunday afternoon games.

What we're watching forWhether Mahomes moves like Mahomes. Whether Murray's ceiling shows up in a dome with Jefferson. Whether Maye's opener was a bad night or a warning. And whether the Week 1 under trend holds: both openers stayed under the number, and only four of Sunday's thirteen totals are above 47.5.

For players to watch, props and our bold predictions for the week, read the companion piece: NFL Week 1 players to watch, best bets and bold predictions.

Analysis & opinion. Game picks and reads are our opinion. Scores, injuries and quarterback assignments are from the reports linked above as of Friday, September 11, 2026. Betting lines are from bet365 via FOX Sports and change constantly; confirm with your sportsbook. Must be 21+ to wager where legal. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.